Staring Into My Crystal Ball... Even The Losers

What do the tea leaves (Oscars, Sundance, all of 2024) portend for 2025?

When the Oscar shortlist came out, I read through it trying to divine what it meant for the future of documentary. So I am going to take out my crystal ball for this column. I come by this modality of truth finding honestly— my grandmother was a renowned palm reader who collected crystal balls. She got rave reviews for her services and loved to call me to share her accolades. (This was just a hobby for her– she didn’t charge.) But the truth was that she would end each call with a cackle and a long drag on her Virginia Slim menthol cigarette and exclaim with glee, “People never know I just make this all up!”

Ok, I am not a psychic either. But let’s give it a shot and try to look into the future. Instead of making straight up predictions about 2025, I want to ask some questions about what might happen in the next year… please let me know your answers in the comments below.

Are celebrity biopics out with doc Oscar voters?

In convos with my doc pals, the main surprise of the shortlist was that Super/Man didn’t make it. Neither did docs on Elton John, Celine Dion, Martha Stewart, Luther Vandross or Pharrel Williams. Does that mean celeb bio pics are not Oscar bait? No, because the Frida doc also qualifies as a celeb bio pic. So can we divine anything here? Frida is a super creative, uniquely made film with a well-known and loved team behind it. But so were some of the others. Thoughts?

What were the other snubs?

Look Into My Eyes, Patrice: The Movie, Seeking Mavis Beacon, Maya and the Wave, Invisible Nation, Mountain Queen, the two films I wrote about in my last two columns’ New Wave and Zurawski v Texas didn’t make the list. A film I produced, Sorry/Not Sorry, didn’t make it either. Alas, the loser club is full of really cool people! Meet me at the bar.

Will films by non-U.S. directors have an edge when the nominations come out?

In 2016, when I was working on one of my first Oscar campaigns for The New York Times Op-Doc ‘4.1 Miles’ directed by Daphne Matziaraki, the conventional wisdom was that political films on topics that the left-leaning, old-school documentary filmmakers on the U.S. coasts liked would have the best shot at Oscar love. But an important shift happened in the voter pool since then because of efforts within the documentary branch to diversify. Now there is a strong constituency of filmmakers from outside the U.S. Indeed, last year all five nominated docs were not from U.S.-based film teams. Will the trend hold this year?

Will Netflix stay in the awards and festivals doc game?

We saw another shift last year when Netflix did not get any documentary feature nominations, after winning six times since 2017 between features and short docs. I heard two emotional reactions when the Academy didn’t nominate any of their films in 2024: glee and dismay. I think both reactions are worth considering. Those who reacted with glee thought their exclusion showed that you do not need a major streamer (and its cash) to be successful in the Oscar race, and besides, Netflix had their turn. Another was anxiety because if Netflix is discouraged by this exclusion and isn’t playing the Oscar game, that could mean they won’t buy “award” films anymore. Award films are usually the films WE filmmakers want to make, not the ones that do well with a mass audience like true crime does. So if Netflix feels like the Oscar game isn’t worth it, there will be fewer buyers at festivals and for high brow fare. That said, this year, Netflix has three films (Daughters, Will & Harper, and The Remarkable Life of Ibelin) on the shortlist. And Netflix did buy Daughters and Ibelin at Sundance in 2024 after they knew none of their films got a nomination. I am curious to watch their moves at Sundance this year. I kinda doubt they will sit on the sidelines? They are an important buyer- one of the few big ones left!! More on that below…

Who really funds Oscar campaigns?